The moving and storage industry may experience some positive momentum even as broader economic challenges persist. This was the key takeaway from a panel discussion held March 16 at the American Trucking Associations’ Moving & Storage Conference Annual Meeting.
One potential boost could come from a temporary increase in consumer spending tied to tax refunds. Lindsay Bur, director of data science and economics at the American Trucking Associations, said the industry may see a short-term benefit as people receive larger refunds this spring. She explained that people are expected to get bigger tax returns in April due to the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” which could lead to a spike in consumer spending during the second quarter.
Interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve is another major factor shaping the outlook. Bur said she expects two additional quarter-point rate cuts, though likely later in the year than originally anticipated. She noted that the Fed must carefully balance the risks of rising prices against the possibility of increasing unemployment.
At the same time, tariffs could create economic pressure. Bur warned that higher costs passed on to consumers may slow spending and affect freight demand and manufacturing. She said tariffs that are ultimately passed through to consumers could act as a drag on consumer spending and, in turn, on the freight industry.
Tariffs could also create complications further down the road. The U.S. Supreme Court’s rejection of a series of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has raised questions about whether companies that previously paid those tariffs will receive refunds. That issue is now moving through the courts, creating uncertainty for businesses.
Housing affordability remains another key factor influencing mobility. Edward Seiler, associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said the housing market largely comes down to interest rates and affordability. When homes become more affordable, people are more likely to move, especially first-time buyers entering the market.
Seiler noted that the economy added an average of about 10,000 new payroll jobs per month throughout 2025, a pace he described as relatively modest. Job growth has also fluctuated in recent months.
Despite that, he said the labor market still shows some resilience. Unemployment rates remain low, though the standard unemployment figure only reflects people actively searching for work. He pointed out that individuals who have been unable to find jobs for long periods may stop looking altogether due to discouragement.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks a broader measure known as the U-6 unemployment rate, which captures labor underutilization by including unemployed individuals, people marginally attached to the workforce, and those working part-time for economic reasons. In February 2026, that measure stood at 7.9% of the civilian labor force.
Seiler explained that this broader metric can serve as an early warning sign for economic weakness. He said it acts as a kind of “canary in the coal mine,” noting that the figure has edged higher recently. Because of that, economists are closely monitoring it as a signal of whether the economy may be softening. Another important indicator they are watching is the rate of hiring and voluntary job quits.
According to Seiler, voluntary resignations have declined amid economic uncertainty and fewer available opportunities. Even though hiring activity has slowed, companies are also avoiding large-scale layoffs.
Housing affordability continues to be a major obstacle. Seiler said it remains extremely difficult for many people to buy their first homes because affordability has dropped significantly. Interest rates doubled in 2022, which dramatically increased monthly payments. As a result, a $500,000 home purchased in 2021 represents a very different financial commitment compared with a $500,000 home bought in 2023.
Payments remain high because of elevated interest rates and limited housing supply. However, Seiler expressed some optimism that supply conditions could begin to improve as policymakers pay more attention to the issue. At the same time, nonresidential construction has been increasing, partly due to the infrastructure required for artificial intelligence.
James Bohnaker, an economist at Cushman & Wakefield, said the commercial real estate market is evolving quickly because of these technological demands. He explained that while data centers have existed for years, the scale and type required for artificial intelligence represent a new development in the market.
At the same time, other areas of commercial construction are slowing. Office space demand has declined, leading to less new construction in that segment. Retail construction has also remained subdued for years, a trend that began with the rise of e-commerce.
