After the swings of the early 2020s, 2025 was a “normalization” year for U.S. logistics—but not a quiet one. Freight demand was uneven, capacity continued to reset (especially in trucking and warehousing), and trade-policy uncertainty helped reshape when and where freight moved, particularly through the ports. The result: a national picture of flat-to-soft freight activity paired with sharp regional contrasts—from resilient East/Southeast gateways and intermodal corridors to a West Coast that saw bursts of volume followed by caution.
Below is how 2025 played out, the key statistics that defined the year, and the most likely paths for 2026.
The 2025 Macro Freight Story: Demand Softness, Timing Shifts, and a Capacity Reset
Freight activity: down modestly in the “for-hire” signal
One of the cleanest national gauges of freight movement is the U.S. DOT/BTS Freight Transportation Services Index (Freight TSI), which tracks for-hire freight across modes. In October 2025, the index fell 1.2% month-over-month and was also down 1.2% year-over-year—a clear sign that 2025 leaned softer than many carriers wanted, even as pockets of strength existed by lane and commodity.
Trucking: tonnage “flat,” but the market kept re-pricing
Trucking remained the backbone mode, yet the for-hire tonnage signal was essentially unchanged year-to-date late into the year. American Trucking Associations reporting indicated that through the first 11 months of 2025, tonnage was unchanged versus the same period in 2024—a “flat demand” headline that hides meaningful differences between contract and spot, and between consumer-linked and industrial freight. (TT News)
Rail: modest growth in total traffic; intermodal stayed strategically important
Rail’s year skewed more stable than truckload spot markets. AAR’s reporting showed total U.S. rail traffic up 1.7% year-to-date late in 2025 (carloads + intermodal units). That’s not a boom, but it matters: intermodal and carload stability gave shippers options as they rebalanced cost-to-serve, especially on long-haul lanes where truck capacity and pricing stayed in flux.
Warehousing: vacancy rose—signaling leverage shifting back to tenants (selectively)
Industrial real estate is the “physical balance sheet” of logistics. By Q3 2025, the U.S. industrial vacancy rate reached about 7.6%, reflecting years of new deliveries catching up to demand. (JLL) This was not a uniform correction: modern big-box space in prime nodes behaved differently than older, functionally obsolete facilities. But at a national level, 2025 clearly extended the post-pandemic normalization in warehouses.
2025 By the Numbers: National Indicators That Defined the Year
Freight activity (for-hire):
- Freight TSI: down 1.2% YoY (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2024). (TT News)
Trucking demand proxy:
- ATA tonnage: flat YTD through the first 11 months of 2025 vs 2024. (TT News)
Rail volume:
- Total U.S. rail traffic: up about 1.7% YTD late in 2025 (carloads + intermodal). (Ajot)
Warehousing / industrial:
- U.S. industrial vacancy: roughly 7.6% in Q3 2025. (JLL)
E-commerce demand signal (parcel and fulfillment tailwind):
- Q3 2025 U.S. retail e-commerce sales: $310.3B (seasonally adjusted); +5.1% YoY; representing 16.4% of total retail sales. (Census.gov)
Labor (tight but cooling at the margin):
- BLS reported transportation & warehousing employment down 78,000 from its February peak (as of Nov 2025), consistent with a year where demand didn’t justify aggressive network expansion. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The Regional Logistics Map in 2025: What Moved Where (and Why)
1) West Coast gateways: big months, then caution (Los Angeles / Long Beach)
The Port of Los Angeles saw strong throughput at points in 2025, including a record July month above 1 million TEUs, with retailers pulling freight forward amid uncertainty. (Reuters) At the same time, port leadership and reporting pointed to a later-year cooling dynamic tied to trade conditions and policy risk. (portoflosangeles.org)
The Port of Long Beach similarly signaled a very strong year pace: in late 2025 it reported being on course for its busiest year and cited 8,229,916 TEUs through the first 10 months of 2025 (+4.1% YoY). (polb.com)
What it meant operationally in the West (2025):
- Drayage and transload remained vital, but demand timing became less predictable.
- Shippers emphasized optionality: more split-routing, more inland port/rail decisions, and more “inventory timing” rather than pure inventory buildup.
2) East Coast strength: New York/New Jersey held the line as a primary import engine
The Port of New York and New Jersey continued to post strong container totals and remained the dominant East Coast gateway by volume. In 2025 reporting, the port region handled nearly 8.7 million TEUs (as cited in regional port materials). (sanynj.org) Additionally, mid-year 2025 analysis noted 4.4 million TEUs through June (+4.9% YoY), underlining sustained East Coast pull. (Cushman & Wakefield)
What it meant for the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic (2025):
- Warehouse and last-mile competition stayed intense in the I-95 corridor, but the tenant market got more negotiating room as national vacancy rose.
- Intermodal and regional trucking networks benefited from steadier import flows relative to some West Coast volatility.
3) The Southeast surge: Savannah as the standout growth narrative
Savannah was the clearest “regional winner” story. In fiscal-year framing, the Port of Savannah moved 5.7 million container units in FY2025 (+8.6%), described as its second-busiest year, supported by earlier-than-usual inbound flows amid tariff uncertainty. (AP News) This reinforced the Southeast’s role as a long-term logistics growth zone—supported by population growth, manufacturing/assembly footprints, and distribution network redesign.
What it meant for the Southeast (2025):
- More freight “landed” closer to end consumers in the Sun Belt.
- Carriers and 3PLs leaned into hub-and-spoke redesign and multi-client warehousing—yet were more disciplined about speculative expansion than in 2021–2022.
What Changed in 2025: The Operating Playbook
1) Timing became strategy. 2025 reminded everyone that “when freight moves” can be as consequential as “how much freight moves.” Pull-forward imports and compressed peak seasons showed up in port and retail commentary. (Reuters)
2) Networks optimized for resiliency, not just cost. Even with softer freight signals, shippers did not abandon resilience. Instead, they pushed for flexible contracts, multi-node inventory, and dynamic routing—especially across coastal gateways.
3) Warehousing shifted from scarcity to selectivity. A 7%+ vacancy world doesn’t mean “easy space everywhere”—it means choices are back. Modern, well-located facilities still commanded attention; second-tier assets faced more pressure. (JLL)
Where 2026 Can Take U.S. Logistics: Scenarios and What to Watch
Base case: “Stable volumes, selective tightening”
A mainstream credit view heading into 2026 was neutral-to-stable for North American freight transportation and logistics, with the key nuance that trends vary by end market and lane. (Fitch Ratings)
What supports the base case in 2026:
- If consumer demand stays steady, intermodal and parcel/fulfillment should remain relatively resilient.
- If industrial production improves, carload commodities and specialized trucking could strengthen.
Costs: diesel as a modest tailwind (if forecasts hold)
Fuel is never the whole story, but it matters. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook materials and related reporting pointed to lower diesel pricing expectations into 2026 compared with 2025 levels, implying some operating relief and potential pricing pressure in competitive lanes. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Warehousing: vacancy likely keeps discipline high
With vacancy elevated versus the tightest years, 2026 is positioned for:
- more sublease and consolidation opportunities,
- more automation ROI scrutiny (do it where throughput is real),
- and more “right-sizing” of network footprints rather than blanket expansion. (JLL)
Practical 2026 Priorities for Shippers, Carriers, and 3PLs
Shippers
- Treat routing guides as living documents: split awards across ports/rail ramps and re-bid lanes more frequently in volatile corridors.
- Pair cost control with service risk metrics (on-time pickup, dwell, claims) so “cheap” doesn’t become expensive later.
Carriers
- Win on network quality: density, driver retention, and customer mix will matter more than chasing marginal spot volume.
- Build intermodal partnerships where they improve asset turns and reduce deadhead.
3PLs / brokers
- Invest in visibility that reduces exception-management labor (not just “track-and-trace”).
- Design multi-shipper consolidation programs in regions with consistent import flow (Northeast, Southeast) and stable rail options.
What’s next in 2026?
2025 was a year of recalibration. National indicators leaned flat-to-soft, but regional outcomes diverged sharply: Savannah and the broader Southeast extended their growth narrative, NY/NJ remained a durable import anchor, and the Southern California ports saw strong periods shaped by timing shifts and policy risk. (AP News)
2026 is set up as a “discipline + optionality” year. If volumes remain stable, the winners will be the organizations that manage timing and routing flexibility, treat warehousing as a portfolio, not a single bet, and operationalize resilience without overbuilding cost.
